Anderson forecast 2024
Dean, Falls School of Business, Anderson University
Madison County’s unemployment rate hit a decade low of 3.3% in 2022, significantly narrowing its unemployment gap with the state of Indiana. The county has continued to diversify its industry base and has seen significant annual average wage growth year-over-year. While higher interest rates have negatively impacted the housing market, Madison County has fared better than the state overall. While the 2024 macroeconomic outlook is uncertain, there are several areas of strength to note for Madison County.
Jobs and unemployment
A 10-year review
Reviewing the prior decade’s total employment data for Madison County, one highlight is that 2022’s annual average marks a decade high for Madison County (see Table 1). For comparison, Madison County’s previous employment high was in 2019.
The average annual unemployment rate for 2022 marks a decade low for Madison County and also marks the smallest gap (0.3%) between Madison County and the state.
Table 1: Madison County and Indiana annual average labor force data
| Madison County | Indiana | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Labor force |
Employment | Unemployment rate |
Labor force |
Employment | Unemployment rate |
| 2013 | 58,141 | 52,821 | 9.2% | 3,193,683 | 2,953,672 | 7.5% |
| 2014 | 57,963 | 53,843 | 7.1% | 3,228,524 | 3,036,685 | 5.9% |
| 2015 | 58,211 | 54,928 | 5.6% | 3,266,392 | 3,109,791 | 4.8% |
| 2016 | 59,021 | 56,085 | 5.0% | 3,331,821 | 3,186,420 | 4.4% |
| 2017 | 58,558 | 56,248 | 3.9% | 3,333,693 | 3,217,049 | 3.5% |
| 2018 | 59,172 | 56,876 | 3.9% | 3,392,579 | 3,276,805 | 3.4% |
| 2019 | 59,353 | 57,170 | 3.7% | 3,404,321 | 3,291,950 | 3.3% |
| 2020 | 58,862 | 54,096 | 8.1% | 3,346,344 | 3,102,706 | 7.3% |
| 2021 | 59,295 | 56,631 | 4.5% | 3,355,642 | 3,225,060 | 3.9% |
| 2022 | 60,466 | 58,460 | 3.3% | 3,404,443 | 3,302,632 | 3.0% |
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) available on STATS Indiana
Most recent 12 months
Looking at the most recent 12 months, the state and Madison County’s employment numbers have declined (see Table 2). Employment decreased in Madison County from 59,069 in October 2022 to 58,787 in September 2023, representing a 0.5% decrease, compared to the state’s decrease from 3,317,846 to 3,284,422, representing a 1.0% decrease.
While the rate of decline in employment over the past 12 months for Madison County has been slower than the state, the increase in the unemployment rate has been slightly higher. The unemployment rate for Madison County increased from 3.1% in October 2022 to 3.5% in September 2023. This represents a 0.4 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate compared to Indiana’s 0.3 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate.
Table 2: Madison County and Indiana monthly labor force data
| Madison County | Indiana | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Employment | Unemployment rate | Employment | Unemployment rate |
| October 2022 | 59,069 | 3.1% | 3,317,846 | 3.0% |
| November 2022 | 58,953 | 3.2% | 3,308,976 | 2.9% |
| December 2022 | 58,893 | 2.8% | 3,308,815 | 2.6% |
| January 2023 | 58,582 | 3.6% | 3,281,432 | 3.4% |
| February 2023 | 58,523 | 4.1% | 3,277,295 | 3.5% |
| March 2023 | 59,108 | 3.9% | 3,309,601 | 3.5% |
| April 2023 | 59,674 | 2.8% | 3,333,849 | 2.6% |
| May 2023 | 59,052 | 3.8% | 3,300,536 | 3.5% |
| June 2023 | 59,576 | 3.8% | 3,328,980 | 3.7% |
| July 2023 | 59,749 | 4.0% | 3,322,736 | 4.0% |
| August 2023 | 59,367 | 3.9% | 3,302,612 | 3.7% |
| September 2023 | 58,787 | 3.5% | 3,284,422 | 3.3% |
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. September 2023 data are preliminary.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) available on STATS Indiana
Industry jobs and wages
Health care services and manufacturing continue to drive Madison County forward. The top five industries in Madison County based on employment by industry (as of Q1 2023) include:
-
Health care and social services (16.8% of total jobs)
-
Manufacturing (13.2%)
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Retail trade (11.9%)
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Accommodation and food services (10.8%)
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Educational services (9.1%)
These five industries make up 61.8% of the jobs in Madison County (see Table 3).
From the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, there was significant job growth in the real estate and rental and leasing industry (+15.2%). Moderate growth was also seen in the wholesale trade (+7.9%) and construction (+5.9%) industries. Finally, public administration saw a moderate increase (+4.8%), primarily driven by the increase in national security and international affairs jobs.
During the same time period, moderate job decreases were observed in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (-7.8%), primarily related to decreases in jobs related to animal production. The administrative and support and waste management and remediation services industry saw a 7.3% decrease in jobs, primarily related to decreases in waste management and remediation services.
Average weekly wages increased from $830 per week in the first quarter of 2022 to $898 per week in the first quarter of 2023, representing an 8.2% increase in wages. Most industries experienced increases year-over-year, with the exception of the arts, entertainment and recreation industry (which saw decreases in average weekly wages in amusement, gambling and recreation) and the finance and insurance industry.
Table 3: Madison County jobs, percent of total jobs and year-over-year change in jobs and average weekly wage
| NAICS | Industry | Jobs, 2023 Q1 |
Percent of total jobs, 2023 Q1 |
Total jobs | Avg. weekly wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1-year percentage change) | |||||
| 0 | Total | 39,032 | 100.0% | 1.6% | 8.2% |
| 11 | Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting | 213 | 0.5% | -7.8% | 10.4% |
| 21 | Mining | D* | |||
| 22 | Utilities | D* | |||
| 23 | Construction | 1,529 | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% |
| 31-33 | Manufacturing | 5,155 | 13.2% | 3.5% | 14.1% |
| 42 | Wholesale trade | 1,057 | 2.7% | 7.9% | 11.3% |
| 44-45 | Retail trade | 4,629 | 11.9% | 0.7% | 6.8% |
| 48-49 | Transportation & warehousing | 2,253 | 5.8% | 3.5% | 6.9% |
| 51 | Information | 283 | 0.7% | -4.1% | 15.7% |
| 52 | Finance and insurance | 1,205 | 3.1% | -1.1% | -0.2% |
| 53 | Real estate and rental and leasing | 371 | 1.0% | 15.2% | 4.7% |
| 54 | Professional, scientific, and technical services | 696 | 1.8% | -1.0% | 16.1% |
| 55 | Management of companies and enterprises | 237 | 0.6% | 3.0% | 43.6% |
| 56 | Admin. & support & waste mgt. & rem. services | 1,918 | 4.9% | -7.3% | 6.7% |
| 61 | Educational services | 3,558 | 9.1% | 1.9% | 7.6% |
| 62 | Health care and social Services | 6,558 | 16.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| 71 | Arts, entertainment, and recreation | 951 | 2.4% | 0.1% | -5.9% |
| 72 | Accommodation and food Services | 4,225 | 10.8% | 1.5% | 9.0% |
| 81 | Other services (Except Public Administration) | 1,129 | 2.9% | -5.5% | 12.4% |
| 92 | Public administration | 2,994 | 7.7% | 4.8% | 7.9% |
| 99 | Unallocated | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
*D = This item is not available due to non-disclosure requirements.
Note: The employment and average weekly wage data exclude county data that are not available due to non-disclosure requirements.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data available from STATS Indiana
Residential real estate
Data from the Indiana Association of Realtors1 for September 2023 indicated that Madison County’s residential real estate market continues to weather higher interest rates, as new listings year-to-date are down 9.3% year-over-year and closed sales are down 9.9%. Madison County has fared better than the state, with new Indiana home listings year-to-date down 14.4% year-over-year and closed sales down 15.5%. As the Federal Reserve continues to address inflation and the potential for future interest rate hikes remains uncertain, Madison County residential real estate will likely continue to retreat in 2024.
While these macroeconomic drivers impact the county, Madison County still maintains the potential to take advantage of its lower-than-average median home prices ($195,000) as compared to the state ($247,000), its proximity to the Indianapolis metro and increased access to high-speed internet across the county to attract remote workers, as the remote-work trend is expected to continue into 2024 and beyond.
Outlook for 2024
The decade-low unemployment rate and moderate increase in wage growth are bright spots for Madison County. Given the Federal Reserve’s signal that inflation remains too high, recent geopolitical uncertainty may impact how the Fed approaches 2024. The unemployment rate in 2024 for Madison County should be expected to rise moderately if interest rate hikes continue beyond the Federal Reserve’s current expectations. Wage growth should be expected to continue at a slower pace than 2023.
If inflationary pressures remain, this will continue to negatively impact Madison County residents. Higher food and energy costs will offset wage increases, negatively impacting residents’ disposable income and the service-related industries in Madison County.
While the 2024 outlook is uncertain, there are several areas of strength to note for Madison County. First is a $30 million investment by Corteva Agriscience that is expected to create 41 new jobs. Second is a $20 million investment by FITT USA that is expected to create 100 jobs. Third is investment in the existing Nestlé facility adjacent to I-69 and Nestlé’s recent apprenticeship program partnership with Anderson Community Schools and the District 26 Career Center. These efforts show Madison County’s ability to drive forward with its economic development in spite of macroeconomic headwinds.
Notes
- Indiana Association of Realtors residential housing data available from the Indiana Association of Realtors website at https://indianarealtors.com/consumers/housing-data/
