93 years of economic insights for Indiana

The IBR is a publication of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU's Kelley School of Business

Anderson Forecast 2015

Professor of Finance and Economics and Dean, Falls School of Business, Anderson University

Overview

Historical, Long-Term Trends Are Negative. Following the Great Recession, persistent unemployment, a long-term downward trend in area employment, and an acceleration in the number of food stamp recipients suggest that Madison County and the greater Anderson community continue to face significant challenges to reach strong economic growth.

But It’s Getting Better. While negative historical trends continue to cloud the economic outlook for Madison County and the greater Anderson community, several indicators have improved since 2013.

Employment and Job Creation

Positive Unemployment Rate Trend: The unemployment rate for Madison County is nearly half what it was in 2009. As shown in Table 1, the unemployment rate declined from a high of 10.3 percent in 2009 to 5.8 percent as of September 2014. Recent trends are also improving. Table 2 indicates that over the last year, the unemployment rate for Madison County decreased substantially by more than 2 percentage points, from 8.0 percent in October 2013 to 5.8 percent as of September 2014.

Table 1: Annual Employment and Unemployment Rates

  Madison County Indiana
Year Employment Unemployment Rate Employment Unemployment Rate
2009 55,718 10.3% 2,872,528 10.3%
2010 54,725 10.3% 2,851,026 10.0%
2011 54,695 9.7% 2,889,997 8.8%
2012 54,845 8.9% 2,911,603 8.1%
2013 54,569 8.0% 2,940,897 7.5%
2014* 57,127 5.8% 3,062,465 5.1%

*2014 data are from January to September.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Lagging behind Indiana: Unemployment in Madison County continues to lag behind Indiana as a whole. Table 1 shows the unemployment rate for Madison County as being higher than the state in five of the six last years. The same holds true in the monthly numbers over the last year. Table 2 shows Indiana’s unemployment rate from one year ago at 6.9 percent in October 2013, with a drop to 5.1 percent as of September 2014. Over the same period, the unemployment rate for Madison County dropped from 8.0 percent to 5.8 percent.

Table 2: Monthly Employment and Unemployment Rates

  Madison County Indiana
Month Employment Unemployment Rate Employment Unemployment Rate
October 2013 55,155 8.0% 2,965,189 6.9%
November 2013 55,290 7.9% 2,978,840 6.7%
December 2013 55,070 7.5% 2,960,003 6.3%
January 2014 55,323 7.8% 2,951,000 6.5%
February 2014 55,315 8.1% 2,960,649 6.9%
March 2014 55,979 7.3% 2,997,588 6.2%
April 2014 56,696 6.4% 3,033,613 5.5%
May 2014 56,716 6.8% 3,042,962 5.8%
June 2014 56,747 7.1% 3,068,121 6.1%
July 2014 56,980 6.9% 3,084,554 5.8%
August 2014 57,693 6.1% 3,067,111 5.5%
September 2014 57,127 5.8% 3,062,465 5.1%

Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2014 Bucked the Negative Jobs Trend: Since 2009, the number of employed in Madison County declined for four straight years. Table 1 shows 2009 employment at 55,718 for Madison County falling each year to a low of 54,569 in 2013. However, from one year ago, the number of employed in Madison County increased to 57,127 as of September 2014, with a 3.6 percent increase in job growth (non-annualized) over October 2013. If this increase holds through the remainder of 2014, the increase in employment reverses a negative trend of four straight years of declining employment in Madison County.

Jobs Recovery Lagging behind Indiana: As indicated in Table 1, employment numbers in Indiana have been trending positive since 2011. Employment numbers in Madison County have just started trending positive in 2014 after four straight years of declines. However, the better news for Madison County is that local employment increased by 3.6 percent over the last year, compared to a 3.3 percent increase at the state level.

Education

Madison County has historically lagged behind Indiana in educational attainment, but distinct improvements have been made over the past decade (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Madison County Educational Degree Attainment

figure 1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

More Degrees: A higher proportion of Madison County residents age 25 and over have a high school diploma or have earned a college degree. In particular, 17.1 percent of the adult population have a bachelor’s degree or higher—up 2.7 percentage points since 2000.

Fewer Dropouts: Another sign of improvement is the decline in the proportion of the population age 25 and older who did not complete high school. The percentage of Madison County adults without a high school degree dropped from 19.9 percent in 2000 to 13.0 percent in 2012.

Safety Net

Economic climate can be gauged in part by changes in the number of food stamp recipients. As shown in Table 3, for the fifth straight year, the number of food stamp recipients increased in Madison County. However, the rate of increase has declined dramatically over the last several years: from a high of 15.8 percent (from 2009 to 2010) to a low of 2.0 percent from 2012 to 2013.

Table 3: Madison County Food Stamp Recipients

Year Recipients Percent Change from Prior Year
2008 14,993 -5.6%
2009 16,114 7.0%
2010 19,134 15.8%
2011 21,571 11.3%
2012 22,437 3.9%
2013 22,898 2.0%

Source: STATS Indiana, using Indiana Family and Social Services Agency data

Outlook for 2015

It is anticipated that 2015 will be an “uptick” year. For 2015, the employment picture is expected to improve with a slight decline in the unemployment rate and a modest increase in employment. The unemployment rate looks to drop another 0.5-1.0 percent in 2015 as the economy continues to improve. The rate of decline could be a little stronger (in the 1.5-2.0 percent range); however, the improving economy will likely draw a number of previously frustrated unemployed back into the labor force. The best estimate is an unemployment rate of about 5.2 percent for 2015. Employment is expected to hold steady with a modest increase of about 0.5 percent in 2015, with the number of jobs topping out at about 58,000. As the overall economy recovers, Indiana economic indicators will likely continue to lead those of Madison County in 2015.