Muncie forecast 2026

Dagney Faulk, Ph.D.

Director of Research, Center for Business and Economic Research, Ball State University

Crayton Morrison

Graduate Research Assistant, Center for Business and Economic Research, Ball State University

The Muncie metro experienced employment and wage gains over the past year, although wage gains did not keep up with inflation for most industry sectors. The county labor force grew and now surpasses pre-pandemic levels. Residential construction activity remains strong. The number of food stamp recipients is stable and is still higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Business news from 2025 includes the closing of several local retail establishments, plans for the Muncie Mall and new development near Ball State. Details are as follows:

• The Hull Property Group, the new owners of the long-struggling Muncie Mall, announced that they plan to demolish two former anchor stores (accounting for more than 250,000 square feet of mall space) to make space for new businesses in outlots around the mall.¹

• The Michaels arts and crafts store closed in March and JoAnn Fabrics closed in May.² The Walgreens store located on Muncie’s south side closed in July.³

• Construction continued on Ball State’s Village revitalization plan, including a hotel and performing arts center along with nearby single-family housing and the new Center for Innovation.⁴ Muncie received funding through the latest round of the READI program that will be used to construct 84 housing units downtown and in the Old West End neighborhood near downtown.⁵ L&J Manufacturing Solutions, which produces recycled rubber products, opened a new headquarters near downtown Muncie and plans to initially employ 15 people.⁶ The new YMCA opened in March.

This article uses the most recent data available (at the time of this writing) from public sources on various measures of economic activity for the Muncie metro (Delaware County) to analyze changes over the past year. A summary of the labor market forecast for the Muncie area is included in the conclusion. 

Labor force

After several years of uneven recovery, Muncie’s labor market was fairly stable through 2025 (see Table 1). The metro’s labor force, members of the population who are working or who are actively looking for work, expanded over the year. It rose from 49,450 in August 2024 to 53,181 in August 2025, a year-over-year increase of 7.5% and much higher than the state’s year-over-year increase of 1.8%. This level now exceeds the August 2019 pre-pandemic mark of 52,207, indicating firmer participation and some recovery in the local labor pool.

Unemployment fluctuated throughout the year, but trended lower during the spring of 2025 before increasing during the summer. Over the year, the unemployment rate decreased from 5.2% in August 2024 to a low of 3.1% in April before increasing to 4.6% during August 2025. Muncie’s unemployment rate continues to be higher than that of the state, with the gap between the two remaining at 0.8 percentage points in both August 2025 and August 2024.

Employment by industry, based on January-to-August averages, indicates that total nonfarm employment increased by 2.5%, reaching more than 49,200 jobs in 2025 (see Table 2). Job growth in numeric terms was led by the government sector (863 jobs, +9.3%) and private educational and health services (438 jobs, +4.5%). In terms of percent growth, the information sector saw a large proportional increase from last year (100 jobs, +33.3%). Leisure and hospitality increased by 5.8%, financial activities posted an 11% increase from a small base and trade, transportation and utilities edged up by 1.5%. By contrast, manufacturing was essentially flat and overall goods-producing employment changed very little.

Table 2: Year-to-date Muncie MSA employment by industry

Wages

Average weekly wages in the Muncie metro continued to rise through early 2025, though growth slowed markedly from the surges seen a few years earlier (see Table 3). First quarter wages averaged $1,004, up 0.8% from the same period in 2024. This modest gain follows increases of 2.9% in 2024, 8.3% in 2023 and 7.5% in 2022, indicating that the rapid wage adjustments of the post-pandemic labor market have largely run their course.

Wage changes were uneven across industries. Professional, scientific and technical services remained among the highest-paying sectors at roughly $1,476 per week, but growth was minimal, suggesting a pause after two years of strong gains. Manufacturing slipped slightly (–0.3%), while finance and insurance saw a more substantial decline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, arts, entertainment and recreation reported the strongest advance (+9.7%), alongside solid gains in information (+5.2%) and retail trade (+4.7%). These increases likely reflect improved consumer demand and a continued rebound in local service activity.

Table 3: Average weekly wages in Muncie MSA

Inflation continued to shape real wage outcomes. The Midwest Urban Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% between the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. This is slightly higher than the 2.8% rate increase between the first quarters of 2023 and 2024. Although these figures are lower than the 5.5% increase recorded between 2022 and 2023, they remain above pre-pandemic norms. Because most industries experienced nominal wage gains below 3%, real wages declined modestly across much of the local economy. Although price pressures have eased substantially, purchasing power has not yet fully recovered from earlier inflationary periods.

Housing

Residential construction activity increased sharply in the first eight months of 2025, with total permits rising from 131 in 2024 to 304 in 2025, a 132% increase (see Table 4). This growth was driven almost entirely by a 322.8% surge in multi-family permits, while single-family permits declined 14.9%, indicating a strong shift toward high-density development. Overall permit levels are now significantly higher than even the post-pandemic recovery peak in 2022, representing the strongest potential construction activity in nearly two decades.

Table 4: Muncie MSA year-to-date residential building permits

Single-family home sales through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) decreased relative to 2024 and the number of days on the market continued to increase, suggesting a slowing of the housing market (see Table 5). This is expected given the relatively high mortgage rates and general economic uncertainty. Average and median house prices continue to increase, although at a slower rate than the peak sales periods during and immediately after the pandemic.

Table 5: Residential real estate sales in Muncie MSA

Note: Includes residential, site-built homes only sold through the MLS. Each year is based on January through September totals. Dollar values are not adjusted for inflation.
Source: Indiana Regional Multiple Listing Service (MLS)

Social safety net

Food stamp-related metrics remained mostly constant during the period examined. Total food stamps issued showed little variation, with a total decrease of 0.7% from September 2024 to September 2025 (see Table 6). The number of households receiving food stamps also remained stable, with August 2025 being the lowest with 6,907 and December 2024 being the highest at 7,059. Households receiving food stamps are about 15% of total households in the county.

Outlook

During 2025, the Muncie MSA experienced a growing labor force. The unemployment rate decreased over the year, only to experience an uptick late in the summer. Overall employment increased, but wage growth did not keep up with inflation for most workers. The housing sector remains strong and the number of food stamp recipients remains stable.
The most recent forecast from the Indiana University Center for Econometric Model Research shows employment growth approaching 3% over the next year.⁷ Personal income is expected to increase less than 2% over the next year.