Johnson County forecast 2026
Executive Director, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University
National economic retrenchment diminished economic momentum in Johnson County in 2025. Higher business uncertainty and a consumer spending pullback generated negative growth in tradeable industries that dominate the county. Tradeable industries have most, if not all, of their customers outside of the county. They have the highest economic multiplier because they earn income for the county through the export of goods and services to other counties. Employment in the county’s two largest tradeable industries– logistics and manufacturing – fell 5.3% and 1.1%, respectively, between 2024 Q1 and 2025 Q1 as revealed in Table 1.1 Logistics and manufacturing are cyclical industries that move up and down with the national economy and employ approximately a quarter of (23.0%) Johnson County workers. High dependence on these two industries makes economic activity in Johnson County vulnerable to national slowdowns.
Table 1: Johnson County employment by industry
| Industry | Employment 2024 Q1 | Employment 2025 Q1 | Employment share August 2025 | Employment growth 2024-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health care and social services | 9,021 | 9,398 | 14.5% | 4.2% |
| Logistics (transportation and warehousing) | 9,594 | 9,088 | 14.1% | -5.3% |
| Retail trade | 8,565 | 8,571 | 13.3% | 0.1% |
| Accommodation and food services | 7,075 | 7,078 | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Manufacturing | 5,827 | 5,763 | 8.9% | -1.1% |
| Educational services | 5,113 | 5,221 | 8.1% | 2.1% |
| Construction | 4,673 | 4,837 | 7.5% | 3.5% |
| Administration and support and waste management | 2,904 | 2,803 | 4.3% | -3.5% |
| Public administration | 2,435 | 2,467 | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Wholesale trade | 2,261 | 2,292 | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 2,064 | 2,083 | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Other private sector services | 1,831 | 1,890 | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Finance and insurance | 1,242 | 1,205 | 1.9% | -3.0% |
| Real estate | 702 | 694 | 1.1% | -1.1% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 467 | 541 | 0.8% | 15.8% |
| Information | 363 | 354 | 0.5% | -2.5% |
| Management of companies and enterprises | 151 | 174 | 0.3% | 15.2% |
| Utilities | 163 | 159 | 0.2% | -2.5% |
| Agriculture and forestry | 30 | 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mining | 21 | 22 | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Total employment | 64,502 | 64,670 | 100.0% | 0.3% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Overall employment in Johnson County was flat between 2024 Q1 and 2025 Q1. The county’s largest industry – health care and social services – added almost 400 jobs and grew 4.2% as an aging population drove steady growth in demand for medical and clinical support. In contrast, retail and accommodation and food services – which together claim another quarter of Johnson County workers – added less than 10 jobs. Construction added just over 150 jobs and grew 3.5%. Significant investment in new housing developments and a 2.9% increase in business establishments – growth that matched the national rate – fueled strong demand for construction talent.2,3,4 Healthy growth in business establishments also expanded management of companies and enterprises employment by 15.2%. Employment in arts, entertainment and recreation enjoyed an impressive bump of 15.8%.
Table 2: Comparative county unemployment rate and employment growth performance
| Unemployment rate September 2024 |
Unemployment rate September 2025 |
Employment March 2024 | Employment March 2025 | Employment change 2024-2025 |
Employment growth 2024-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson County | 3.4% | 3.1% | 64,754 | 64,602 | -152 | -0.2% |
| Marion County | 4.1% | 3.6% | 618,985 | 622,325 | 3,340 | 0.5% |
| Morgan County | 3.7% | 3.4% | 15,335 | 15,637 | 302 | 2.0% |
| Shelby County | 3.4% | 3.3% | 18,665 | 18,627 | -38 | -0.2% |
| Bartholomew County | 3.8% | 3.4% | 50,240 | 49,810 | -430 | -0.9% |
| Brown County | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3,147 | 3,229 | 82 | 2.6% |
| Indianapolis metro | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1,077,746 | 1,089,414 | 11,668 | 1.1% |
| Indiana | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3,150,693 | 3,161,448 | 10,755 | 0.3% |
| United States | 3.9% | 4.3% | 153,848,430 | 154,523,785 | 675,355 | 0.4% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
As Table 2 reveals, the Johnson County unemployment rate fell from 3.4% in September 2024 to 3.1% in September 2025 despite near zero countywide employment growth and contraction of jobs in key tradeable industries.5 A proportionally large exit of residents from the Johnson County labor force, mostly through retirement, would explain this phenomenon. Note that employment shrinkage of 0.2% in Table 2 does not match growth of 0.3% in Table 1 because Table 2 compares March 2024 to March 2025 whereas Table 1 compares aggregated Q1 measurement between 2024 and 2025.
As of September 2025, unemployment in Johnson County was lower than all five surrounding counties and the nation, state and Indianapolis metropolitan area. Unemployment fell across the Indianapolis region while it rose nationally. This reflected comparatively strong regional employment growth that made Indianapolis a positive outlier in the Midwest. Zero employment growth locally, though, alongside 1.1% overall employment growth in the metropolitan area unfortunately meant Johnson County did not benefit from the region’s economic expansion.
Further data suggests recent deterioration in the competitive position of Johnson County within the region. Through 2023, growth in Johnson County kept close pace with the metropolitan area. Between 2019 (before the pandemic) and 2023 (the latest year for which county-level real GDP and personal income data is available from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), economic activity and personal income grew 11.0% and 24.2% in Johnson County compared with 12.5% and 28.5% in the metropolitan area as revealed in Table 3.6 Between 2024 Q1 and 2025 Q1, though, not only was there no employment growth in Johnson County, but the local weekly wage only grew 2.6% while it increased 6.7% in the metropolitan area. Johnson County fell behind the metropolitan area in 2025 and risks further slide toward the economic periphery of the region in 2026 if employment and wage growth continue to stall.
Table 3: Comparative county real GDP, personal income and wage growth performance
| Real GDP growth 2019-2023 | Per capita personal income 2023 | Per capita personal income growth 2019-2023 | Average weekly wage 2025 Q1 | Wage growth 2024-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson County | 11.0% | $61,983 | 24.2% | $988 | 2.6% |
| Marion County | 12.9% | $70,999 | 29.6% | $1,779 | 8.8% |
| Morgan County | 6.9% | $56,426 | 26.2% | $989 | 2.7% |
| Shelby County | 7.0% | $55,484 | 25.5% | $1,151 | 2.8% |
| Bartholomew County | 1.0% | $65,564 | 20.7% | $1,752 | 1.6% |
| Brown County | 5.4% | $61,898 | 27.2% | $740 | 8.8% |
| Indianapolis metro | 12.5% | $72,494 | 28.5% | $1,532 | 6.7% |
| Indiana | 11.2% | $61,070 | 26.5% | $1,323 | 4.2% |
| United States | 9.7% | $73,206 | 31.8% | $1,589 | 4.1% |
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Lower-wage workers alongside higher-income residents challenge any economic development strategy for Johnson County. A weekly wage of $988 in 2025 Q1 suggests annual income (income over 52 weeks) of $51,376 for the average Johnson County worker, which is 83% of the personal income of the average Johnson County resident in 2023. This weekly wage is only 56% of the $1,779 earned by the average Marion County worker. Higher-income residents commute to higher-paying jobs in other counties in the region, especially those in the urban core in Marion County. An average house price in November of 2025 of $438,189 in Johnson County compared to $397,220 in the metropolitan area (10.3% higher in Johnson County) proves this point.7,8 Local companies determine the economic future of Johnson County, but those companies pay some of the lowest wages in the region. As the most dominant tradeable industry in the county (which claims 14.1% of employment), transportation and warehousing on average paid 86.4% of the national average hourly wage in November 2025 ($32.00 versus $37.00).9,10 Employment growth in higher-paying industries can close the gap between average wage and average personal income in Johnson County.
The fastest-growing tradeable industries in the Indianapolis metropolitan area broadly serve the life sciences. New Eli Lilly manufacturing facilities at LEAP in Boone County11 , construction of the new IU Health campus12, opening of the Elanco headquarters and the OneHealth Innovation District13 and expansion of research capacity at 16 Tech14,15 reinforce this observation. Between May 2023 and May 2024, jobs grew 17.1% in the life, physical and social science occupations in the Indianapolis metropolitan area. Johnson County had only 26 employed in scientific and development services and 64 employed in chemical manufacturing (which includes pharmaceutical manufacturing) in 2024.16 A focus on life sciences can strategically link Johnson County with the most powerful driver of economic growth and higher-paying jobs in Indianapolis. This can pull Johnson County closer to the nucleus of economic transformation in the region.
The 2025 stall in Johnson County’s economic momentum will continue in 2026. The county’s reliance on logistics and manufacturing for income make it dependent upon a reversal of slow growth in the U.S. economy which is not expected to happen in 2026. Whereas the nation is expected to grow 1.8% (below the healthy growth range of 2.0% and 3.0%), the state 1.0% and metropolitan Indianapolis between 1.5% and 2.0% in 2026, Johnson County is expected to only grow between 0.5% and 1.0% next year. National and state unemployment are expected to increase to 4.4% and 4.8%, respectively. Trends suggest a rise in unemployment to between 3.5% and 4.0% in Johnson County. Stronger links with life sciences in 2026 can help Johnson County reverse a worsening trend of below-average economic performance in the Indianapolis region.
Notes
- The data in Table 1 comes from various sources that provide access to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
- Staff Reports, Daily Journal of Johnson County. 2025. Building up: Developments abundant across Johnson County for 2025. Indiana Economic Digest. January 2.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. 2025. Number of private establishments for all industries in Johnson County, IN. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2025. Number of establishments in private total, all industries for all establishment sizes in U.S. total, NSA. Series ID ENUUS00020510. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Private establishments in the U.S. grew from 11,602,004 in 2024 Q1 to 11,942,511 in 2025 Q1, or 2.9%.
- The data in Table 2 comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates come from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics and employment numbers come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
- The data in Table 3 comes from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). GDP and personal income come from Regional data: GDP and personal income at the BEA and wages comes from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages at the BLS.
- Realtor.com via FRED. 2025. Housing inventory: Average listing price in Johnson County, IN. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Realtor.com via FRED. 2025. Housing inventory: Average listing price in Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN (CBSA). Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. 2025. Average hourly earnings of all employees, transportation and warehousing. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The average transportation and warehousing worker earned $32.00 per hour in the United States in November 2025.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. 2025. Average hourly earnings of all employees, total private. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The average transportation and warehousing worker earned $37.00 per hour in the United States in November 2025.
- Guffey, Alysa. 2024. Eli Lilly plans $4.5 billion facility in LEAP District, bringing investment to $13 billion. Indianapolis Star. October 2.
- Lee, Daniel. 2025. IU Health prepares for huge increase in energy use with $4.3B hospital complex. Indianapolis Business Journal. November 28.
- Miller, C. J. 2025. Elanco opens new $200 million global headquarters in downtown Indianapolis. Hoosier Ag Today. October 1.
- Indiana University. 2025. Launch Accelerator for Biosciences: IU LAB.
- Brown, Alex. 2025. Heartland BioWorks headquarters planned for 16 Tech. Inside Indiana Business. October 27.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2025. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
