Fort Wayne forecast 2026

Rachel Blakeman, J.D.

Director of the Community Research Institute, Purdue University Fort Wayne

Heather L.R. Tierney, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Economics, Purdue University Fort Wayne

Heading into 2026, Fort Wayne-area residents are upset by higher prices on basic needs. Their frustration lines up with the data, especially if their income sources failed to keep pace with inflation. Purdue University Fort Wayne (PFW) evaluated wages, household income, rent, food costs and home prices for the past decade in both current and inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars to understand conditions going into the new year.

The numbers presented here reflect population-level data. Individual households’ experiences may differ based on factors too numerous to list here.

Allen County’s average private sector wage increases 10% over 10 years, but dips after pandemic peak

Allen County’s average private sector wage has lagged behind the nation and state for decades, but when adjusted for inflation, it’s up 10.1% from $54,792 in 2015 to $60,301 in 2024. This is an increase of 41.8% when not adjusting for inflation (see Figure 1).

The annual average wage shows a steady upward increase in current dollars, but when adjusting for inflation, wages peaked in 2021 at $61,737, declined in 2022 and 2023, then increased in 2024. The 2024 average annual wage lags behind the adjusted wage in 2020 and 2021. More simply, 2024’s wages have less buying power than wages in 2020 and 2021.

Figure 1: Allen County average private sector wage

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages with inflation adjustment by Purdue University Fort Wayne

With prices escalating while the average wage in real dollars was decreasing, it’s reasonable that Fort Wayne consumers felt pinched (see Figure 2). 2024 broke the downward trend in wages, but it has not yet regained peak buying power.

Figure 2: Allen County average wage year-over-year percentage change with CPI comparison

Source: Purdue University Fort Wayne, using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Consumer Price Index

Median household income shows similar pattern to wages

Wages equate to paychecks while income reflects nearly all financial sources, such as Social Security, pensions or self-employment income. Median household income is the midpoint of all wages, earnings and other income sources from all earners in a household.

The U.S. Census Bureau calculates median household income from the American Community Survey. PFW opted to use one-year ACS estimates for this data point, so no 2020 county-level information is available due to pandemic limitations.

When adjusting for inflation, the median household income for Allen County follows the same trend line as wages (see Figure 3). Exceeding inflationary pressures caused an increase from $64,085 in 2015 to $68,498 in 2019. Income peaked in 2021 at $71,806, only to fall in 2022 and 2023, but then increase to $70,568 in 2024. Like private sector wages, median household income increased 10.1% in 10 years when adjusted for inflation (or 41.8% without adjustment).

Figure 3: Allen County median household income

Note: ACS 1-year estimates were not available in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year estimates (Table DP03) with inflation adjustments by Purdue University Fort Wayne

Measuring year-over-year change, the increases in median household income between 2015 and 2018 were less than 2% in adjusted dollars, but closer to 3% in unadjusted dollars (see Figure 4). The large increase in 2021 reflects the change from 2019. Adjusted for inflation, the median decreased 2.4% between 2021 and 2022, and then slipped again in 2023 by 3.8%. 2024 saw a recovery of 4.7%, but it still has not reached the 2021 high point.

Figure 4: Allen County median household income year-over-year change with CPI comparison

Note: ACS 1-year estimates were not available in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Source: Purdue University Fort Wayne, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year estimates (Table DP03) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index

The increase in median household income reflects a reduction in the number of households making less than $25,000 a year (22% of households in 2015 to 14% in 2024). It also reflects growth in the number of households with incomes at $100,000 or more (17.8% of households in 2015 to 31.9% in 2024), according to Census Bureau data in current dollars.¹

Grocery costs increase 55.8% between 2016 and 2025

The U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes four monthly food costs to reflect grocery spending quartiles. As the cheapest, the Thrifty Food Plan provides the basis for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit calculations while covering adequate nutrition. The same numbers are used by the 48 contiguous states.

The plans provide weekly and monthly calculations based on gender and age, which can be added together for a household calculation. The family for these calculations consists of a man and woman (ages 19 to 50) with one child age 6 to 8 and another child age 9 to 11.    

While not local, this data provides insight into grocery prices over time. In 2022, the calculations were adjusted for the 2021 Thrifty Food Plan re-evaluation to add $53 a month for this family.

When adjusting for inflation, the Thrifty Food Plan actually decreased from July 2016 to July 2019 – going from $816.59 to $787.28 – before increasing slightly in 2020 to $811.07 (see Figure 5). The price increased in 2021 and 2022, but then shows a flat-line pattern from 2023 to 2025 from $1,001.06 to $996.30.

Figure 5: Monthly family Thrifty Food Plan for July

Note: The family for these calculations consists of a man and woman (ages 19 to 50) with one child age 6 to 8 and another child age 9 to 11.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture with inflation adjustment by Purdue University Fort Wayne

The trend lines nearly match between adjusted and unadjusted dollars. The difference from 2016 to 2020 was $36.60 per month without inflation, or an annual total of $439.20 (when multiplied for 12 months). The climb between 2020 to 2022 was a monthly increase of $275.50 (or $3,306 annually). Costs have essentially flattened since that 2022 peak. The annual food cost for that family increased by $4,280.40 in a decade (in unadjusted dollars) or $2,156.52 when accounting for inflation. Food costs were one of many expenses to increase in this time, so Fort Wayne residents may feel squeezed when shopping for groceries and other necessities. A family of four’s grocery costs will be exceeding $12,000 annually going into 2026 when observing the Thrifty Food Plan.

Median rent up 15.2% while median sales price for homes jumped 64%

Housing is typically a household’s largest monthly expense, so increases there can stress budgets. Many may feel stuck in their current location, whether it’s the golden handcuffs of a sub-3% interest rate, escalating rent and house prices that make homeownership out of reach, or low inventory that makes downsizing challenging.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey publishes annual median rent prices. While much attention has been given to rent increases, the median rent, when adjusted for inflation, has increased $141 a month between 2015 and 2024 (see Figure 6), constituting a 15.2% increase. Without the inflation adjustment, the median rent looks very different, with an additional $349 on the monthly rent in 2024 (a 48.3% jump).

Figure 6: Allen County median rent

Note: ACS 1-year estimates were not available in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year estimates (Table DP04) with inflation adjustments by Purdue University Fort Wayne

Similar to grocery costs, Allen County’s median rent was stable between 2015 and 2019. In unadjusted dollars, the median jumped $90 between 2019 and 2021, then it jumped another $111 between 2021 and 2022. There was a slight dip in 2023, but the median crossed the $1,000 threshold in 2024.

Median rent costs have consistently increased in the past decade, with the exception of 2016 and 2023 (see Figure 7). Pre-pandemic years had smaller increases compared to post-pandemic years. If renters’ incomes outpaced inflation, these increases were milder, but if income remained flat, these changes were especially harsh.

Figure 7: Allen County median rent year-over-year change with CPI comparison

 

Note: ACS 1-year estimates were not available in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Source: Purdue University Fort Wayne, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year estimates (Table DP04) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index

First-time homebuyers may struggle to assemble a down payment, especially when stretched by rent increases. Buyers who held off during the pandemic-induced price surges, which were driven by record-low interest rates and increased demand, have seen houses get more expensive in both price and monthly payments. Hopes of once again getting a Great Recession-style price decrease have disappeared.  

Allen County’s median sales price for homes, according to data from the Indiana Association of Realtors, shows increases that far outpace those of rent and inflation. In July, the 2025 year-to-date median sales price was $258,661, a sales price 2% higher than the year-end median sales prices for 2024 ($253,500). For comparison, the median unadjusted sales price was $120,000 in 2015 (see Figure 8). Unlike inflation-adjusted declines in wages or household income, house prices climbed steadily.

Figure 8: Allen County median home sales price

Source: Indiana Association of Realtors with inflation adjustment by Purdue University Fort Wayne

For year-over-year prices, unadjusted and inflation-adjusted home sales prices show slightly different stories, especially from 2021 to 2023 (see Figure 9). In unadjusted prices, the change from 2021 to 2022 was a 13.8% increase, but it was only 5.6% when adjusting for inflation. The median sales price increased 111.3% in unadjusted dollars from 2015 to 2024, compared to 64% in adjusted dollars during that time period. Either way, that far exceeds the 31.7% increase in the Consumer Price Index from 2016 to 2025.

Figure 9: Allen County median home sales price year-over-year change with CPI comparison

Source: Purdue University Fort Wayne, using data from the Indiana Association of Realtors and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index

The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with flat costs for principal and interest is a remarkable inflation buffer, especially when prices are escalating. Property taxes and insurance, which are usually rolled into the monthly payment, don’t have the same cost protections, so the monthly payment can increase. However, the largest expenses have stayed the same for three decades, creating some budget predictability.

2026 labor market outlook

The national labor market is softening due to a number of uncertainties, such as tariffs, federal government policy and action (or lack thereof), actual or threatened layoffs and consumer caution from being tired of higher prices. All of these can weaken consumer confidence, which could lead to a shrinking economy in 2026 that could harm the local job market.

An economic downturn could negatively affect the Fort Wayne metro’s nearly 38,000 manufacturing jobs.² A spending slowdown creates a double whammy for manufacturing because consumers pull back on spending for durable goods, such as vehicles, and the wage premium manufacturing employees enjoy dissipates with layoffs or elimination of overtime. Furthermore, Fort Wayne’s reliance on transportation, distribution and logistics, such as the three Amazon warehouses, can also take a hit with less need to move goods as buyers scale back on purchasing. However, if the job market remains stable locally and consumer demand holds nationally, the Fort Wayne economy could avoid negative consequences. 

Steady outlook for Fort Wayne unemployment going into 2026

Using monthly seasonally adjusted data from the Federal Reserve Economic Database at St. Louis from January 2015 to August 2025, we have projected unemployment rates into 2026. This projection keeps the Fort Wayne metro unemployment rate below 4%, barring any significant jolts to the economy (see Figure 10).

Figure 10: Projected Fort Wayne MSA monthly unemployment rate

Note: This unemployment rate is seasonally adjusted.
Source: Purdue University Fort Wayne

An autoregressive (AR) model is used to forecast unemployment. It uses past unemployment lags to forecast future rates. Since we are a consumer-driven economy, past lags might be beneficial in forecasting unemployment. Unemployed people tend to consume less due to not having a steady income. This leads to decreased consumption, which could result in more unemployment.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, meaning it tends to respond slowly to current economic conditions. During a downturn, employers might delay laying off employees in hopes that the economy will turn around and they can avoid new-hire costs and productivity loss. Unemployment tends to lag the overall economy by a few months to a year. 

Assuming Fort Wayne’s 2026 labor market stays approximately the same as August 2025, the unemployment rate in 2026 is expected to range between 3.7% and 3.9% (seasonally adjusted). Unemployment is expected to peak in May 2026 at 3.9%, but it is projected to end 2026 at 3.8%. If the economy shrinks next year, Fort Wayne is likely to feel that pinch to some degree in the labor market, but that degree is difficult to decipher without additional information.