Indiana Business Review
100 years of economic insights for Indiana

The IBR is a publication of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU's Kelley School of Business.

Executive Editor, Carol O. Rogers
Managing Editor, Brittany L. Hotchkiss

Johnson County forecast 2025

Author photoPhil Powell, Ph.D.

Executive Director, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University

Economic activity

The nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of Johnson County—or the total market value of all final goods and services produced within the county—was $8.04 billion in 2023, up from $7.36 billion (+9.2%) in 2022.1 This beat nationwide and Indianapolis metropolitan area growth of 6.6% and statewide growth of 5.5% between 2022 and 2023.2,3 Table 1 ranks growth in GDP by industry since before the pandemic in 2019 and provides each industry’s share of GDP in 2023.4

Table 1: Johnson County GDP, share and growth by industry

Johnson County industry 2019
GDP value		 2023
GDP value		 2023
GDP share		 2019-2023
GDP growth
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 2,356 6,234 0.1% 164.6%
Transportation and warehousing 370,861 720,270 9.0% 94.2%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 8,865 17,024 0.2% 92.0%
Construction 440,216 770,752 9.6% 75.1%
Information 65,212 97,764 1.2% 49.9%
Real estate and rental and leasing 705,050 1,035,708 12.9% 46.9%
Utilities 15,754 22,982 0.3% 45.9%
Other private industry services  194,701 269,383 3.4% 38.4%
Retail trade 626,912 866,555 10.8% 38.2%
Accommodation and food services 251,201 342,533 4.3% 36.4%
Professional, scientific and technical services 226,571 305,975 3.8% 35.0%
Durable goods manufacturing 536,899 709,817 8.8% 32.2%
Arts, entertainment and recreation 24,775 32,687 0.4% 31.9%
Nondurable goods manufacturing 123,944 161,350 2.0% 30.2%
Finance and insurance 362,196 469,299 5.8% 29.6%
Educational services 53,282 68,968 0.9% 29.4%
Government and government enterprises 642,556 817,209 10.2% 27.2%
Health care and social assistance 495,709 609,898 7.6% 23.0%
Wholesale trade 331,110 401,356 5.0% 21.2%
Management of companies and enterprises 19,122 22,983 0.3% 20.2%
Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 304,035 288,029 3.6% -5.3%
Total 5,801,328 8,036,774 100.0% 38.5%

Note: Nominal GDP values are expressed in terms of millions of current dollars.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Rapid expansion in transportation and warehousing, construction and real estate have been dominant drivers of growth in Johnson County economic activity since the pandemic. While these industries fuel healthy local economies, they only weakly enhance the global competitiveness of Johnson County. They are typical drivers of economic growth in geographic areas on the periphery of a large metropolitan area. Comparatively slow growth in management of companies and enterprises suggests that Johnson County faces competitive challenges in recruitment and retainment of entrepreneurial businesses.

Despite a lack of fast growth in high-innovation industries, the economic performance of Johnson County will outpace regional peers in the upcoming year. Real economic activity in Johnson County is expected to grow 3.5% in 2025. This exceeds expected real GDP growth of 2.1% in the nation, 2.9% in the state and 3.1% in the Indianapolis metropolitan area.

Workforce and wages

October 2024 unemployment was 3.3% in Johnson County (not seasonally adjusted), down from a recent peak of 4.0% in July 2024.5 This compared with October 2024 unemployment of 4.1% nationwide,6 4.4% statewide7 and 3.6% in the Indianapolis metropolitan area.8 Any growth in unemployment in 2025 is expected to peak in the first quarter and then fall through the rest of the year. Unemployment during 2025 will average 4.2% nationally, 3.8% in the state, 3.5% in the Indianapolis metropolitan area and 3.1% in Johnson County. Intense competition for scarce good talent in Johnson County will continue in 2025. Businesses should navigate this challenge by investing further in automation and attractive workplace cultures.

The Johnson County labor force was 90,534 in October 2024, up from 88,432 in October 2023.9 This 2.4% growth is just below 2.5% in the Indianapolis metropolitan area,10 but greater than 0.7% in the state11 and 0.5% in the nation.12 Johnson County wages significantly lag the state and the nation. Preliminary weekly wage data estimates that workers in Johnson County earned 80.1% of the state average and 67.5% of the national average in the second quarter of 2024. Growth between the second quarter of 2023 and second quarter of 2024 was only 2.6% in Johnson County versus 6.4% statewide and 4.4% nationwide.13 Sluggish wage growth correlates with less-than-impressive comparative expansion in high-value industries—like management of companies and enterprises and professional, scientific and technical services—that make Johnson County globally competitive. The Indianapolis metropolitan area—which includes Johnson County—has seen a worrisome loss in high-value occupations since 2019. There are 12% fewer scientists, 7% fewer engineers and 4% fewer computer programmers.14 This is a concern in a region that places focus on life sciences and manufacturing.

Income and population

While Johnson County wages are relatively low, household income is not. A large share of high-income residents work outside of Johnson County. Median household income in Johnson County was $83,036 in 2022,15 which was 8% higher than the state median16 and 3% higher than the national median.17 The Johnson County population was 167,819 in 2023 and is expected to be 179,223 by 2030, which implies population growth of 0.9% per year between 2023 and 2030.18 This exceeds projected annual population growth of 0.3% for Indiana19 and 0.4% for the nation20 during the same period. Gravitation of people to Indiana’s largest metropolitan area will continue to fuel comparatively strong population growth in Johnson County. The desired split of residents who commute to other counties for work versus those that also work in the county defines an important focus of economic development strategy for communities within Johnson County.

Residential real estate

Mortgage rates are expected to fall to just over 6% by the end of 2025. This will increase activity in residential real estate markets, especially in newly developed suburban and exurban areas of Johnson County. National residential investment is supposed to grow 4% in 2025 after just 1% growth in 2024. Upward pressure on housing prices has weakened or disappeared. The median listing price for a house in Johnson County in November 2024 was $349,900, the same that it was in November 2023.21 This compares with $315,450 in the metropolitan Indianapolis area,22 $285,000 in the state23 and $416,880 in the nation24 in November 2024.

Notes

  1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2024. “CAGDP2 gross domestic product (GDP) by county and metropolitan area.” Regional data: GDP and personal income. Interactive data tables. Johnson County, Indiana. https://www.bea.gov/itable/regional-gdp-and-personal-income.
  2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2024. “SAGDP1 state annual gross domestic product (GDP) summary.” Regional data: GDP and personal income. Interactive data tables. United States and Indiana. https://www.bea.gov/itable/regional-gdp-and-personal-income.
  3. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2024. “CAGDP1 county and MSA gross domestic product (GDP) summary.” Regional data: GDP and personal income. Interactive data tables. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Indiana Metropolitan Statistical Area. https://www.bea.gov/itable/regional-gdp-and-personal-income.
  4. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2024. “CAGDP2 gross domestic product (GDP) by county and metropolitan area.” Regional data: GDP and personal income. Interactive data tables. Johnson County, Indiana. https://www.bea.gov/itable/regional-gdp-and-personal-income.
  5. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Unemployment rate in Johnson County, IN.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INJOHN5URN.
  6. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Unemployment rate.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE.
  7. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Unemployment rate in Indiana.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INUR.  
  8. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Unemployment rate in Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN (MSA).” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDI918URN.   
  9. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Civilian labor force in Johnson County, IN.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INJOHN5LFN.  
  10. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Civilian labor force in Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN (MSA).” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDI918LFN.
  11. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Civilian labor force in Indiana.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INLF#0.  
  12. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Civilian labor force level.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV.
  13. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “One-screen data search.” Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/en. In the second quarter of 2024, the preliminary estimate of average weekly wage was $938 in Johnson County, $1,171 in Indiana and $1,390 in the United States. In the second quarter of 2023, the average weekly wage was $914 in Johnson County, $1,101 in Indiana and $1,332 in the United States.
  14. This data comes from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For more detail, see the 2025 Indianapolis metropolitan area economic forecast provided in this issue of the Indiana Business Review.
  15. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Estimate of median household income for Johnson County, IN.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MHIIN18081A052NCEN.
  16. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Median household income in Indiana.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSINA646N.
  17. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Median household income in the United States.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N.  
  18. Indiana Department of Workforce Development. 2024. “Johnson County, IN.” Hoosiers by the Numbers. https://www.hoosierdata.in.gov/highlights/profile.asp?geo_val=S18;C081&page_id=1.
  19. Kinghorn, Matt. 2024. “Indiana population projections to 2060.” Indiana Business Review, 99(2). https://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2024/summer/article1.html.
  20. United States Census Bureau. 2024. “Table 1: Projected population and components of change.” 2023 National Population Projections Tables: Main Series. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2023/demo/popproj/2023-summary-tables.html.
  21. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Housing inventory: Median listing price in Johnson County, IN.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRI18081.
  22. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Housing inventory: Median listing price in Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN (CBSA).” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRI26900.
  23. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Housing inventory: Median listing price in Indiana.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIIN.
  24. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2024. “Housing inventory: Median listing price in the United States.” FRED economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIUS.