Bloomington forecast 2025
Director, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business
Multiple dimensions of the Bloomington metro economy (Monroe and Owen counties) continue to post relatively tepid growth post-pandemic. Growth in population, labor force and jobs since the first quarter of 2023 has been weak compared to the nation and the state, as well as other metro areas within Indiana.
Employment and wages
The latest forecast from the Center for Econometric Model Research (part of the Indiana Business Research Center) provides a somber trajectory for Bloomington jobs growth (employment by place of work). The metro area’s job levels have remained relatively static since 2023, reaching 75,000 or more jobs twice since 2022. Bloomington metro jobs are forecast to experience both growth and decline within a range of 1,000 jobs through 2026 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Bloomington job levels: Actual performance and the IBRC forecast
Note: Job numbers are in thousands. Red columns are actual data while blue columns are forecasts.
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
As a result, Bloomington job growth is forecast to climb into positive territory by the fourth quarter of 2025 and remain under 1% throughout 2026 (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Year-over-year job growth rates
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
Bloomington is certainly not alone in the slow-to-no job growth scenario. Overall, Indiana is forecast to hover at 1% growth through 2025 and 2026. From the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025, Bloomington and Lafayette are forecast to have stagnant growth, while the southeastern metro counties near Louisville and the Kokomo metro in the central part of the state will experience growth rates around 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively. Other metros will slightly exceed the state average growth of 1%, including Columbus, Elkhart-Goshen, Northwest Indiana, Indianapolis, Muncie and South Bend (see Figure 3). Table 1 shows quarterly year-over-year growth for Indiana metros, ranking them by forecasted fourth quarter growth for 2024 and 2025.
Figure 3: Year-over-year job growth rates by metro area, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
Table 1: Year-over-year job growth compared: All metropolitan areas by quarter by year
| Geography | Actual | Forecast | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4th quarter | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4th quarter |
| Year | 2023 | 2024 | Rank | 2025 | Rank | |||||||||
| Bloomington | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -1.3 | 15 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.05 | 15 |
| Columbus | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 |
| Elkhart-Goshen | -4.8 | -6.7 | -8.4 | -7.1 | -3.2 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 8 |
| Evansville (IN counties) | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 11 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 10 |
| Fort Wayne | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.6 | 14 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 12 |
| Gary/NW IN | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 12 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 |
| Indianapolis | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 |
| Jasper (micropolitan) | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 9 |
| Kokomo | -0.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | -1.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 5.5 | 1 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Lafayette | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 13 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 14 |
| Louisville (IN counties) | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Muncie | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 |
| Rest of state | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 10 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 13 |
| South Bend | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 2 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 |
| Terre Haute | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 11 |
| Indiana | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | n/a | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | n/a |
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
Wages for payroll jobs in the Bloomington metro saw significant post-pandemic increases that began to bottom out early in 2024. We forecast wages to climb again late in 2024 before converging at 4% in the second half of 2025 through 2026 (see Figure 4).
Figure 4: Year-over-year payroll wage growth
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
Gross domestic product and personal income
The Bloomington metro economy, as measured by real gross domestic product, is valued at $7.9 billion. Real GDP growth between 2019 and 2023 was 5% and less than half that of Indianapolis. We forecast Bloomington’s year-over-year real GDP growth for 2024 to end at 2.6% and climb to 3.1% in 2025 (see Figure 5 and Figure 6). That translates to Bloomington outpacing Indiana’s forecasted 2025 growth of 2.9% and U.S. forecasted growth of 2.1%. While real labor productivity growth in Indiana has been outpacing the nation (7.9% between 2017 and 2022), based on GDP and employment, it only grew by 1.7% in the Bloomington metro area during that time.
Figure 5: Year-over-year real GDP growth (2017 dollars)
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
Figure 6: Bloomington real GDP volume and growth trends
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
Personal income for the metro grew significantly in 2023 and 2024 is forecast to reach and maintain a 4% growth rate through 2025 and 2026 (see Figure 7 and Figure 8). That rate of growth is in line with the state average, powered by a combination of higher wages and income from other sources, including investments, social security and other government transfer payments.
Figure 7: Year-over-year personal income growth
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
Figure 8: Bloomington personal income volume and growth trends
Note: Blue columns are actual data while yellow columns are forecasts.
Source: Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Center for Econometric Model Research
Looking forward
The Bloomington metro area may be at a tipping point. While it is among the larger metro areas in Indiana and the largest in southwest Indiana, its population growth has been static and is projected to decline over the next 15 years, based on the latest IBRC population projections. Median household income is below the state average (92%) and the U.S. average (86%). Notable for having high housing costs, single-family home prices have fallen by 12% in the past year, which is good news for buyers.
Situated as it is geographically, the Bloomington metro area has significant potential to grow in both jobs and population, especially since commuting into the region is faster with the completion of the interstate (I-69) between Indianapolis and Evansville. But the choice to live in Bloomington versus surrounding counties has been muted by the scarcity of housing coupled with high housing costs. Movers have been choosing other surrounding counties, even while working, shopping and playing in Bloomington—a strong trifecta for the economy of Bloomington and Monroe and Owen counties.
