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The IBR is a publication of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU's Kelley School of Business.

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Managing Editor, Brittany L. Hotchkiss

Fort Wayne forecast 2025

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Director of the Community Research Institute, Purdue University Fort Wayne

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Associate Professor of Economics, Purdue University Fort Wayne

Fort Wayne’s labor market information from the Indiana Department of Workforce Development shows a mixed picture heading into 2025. Over the course of the year, monthly unemployment rates for the Fort Wayne metro are mostly below the state’s rate, which demonstrates economic strength. However, Fort Wayne’s unemployment rate increased between 2023 and 2024 (see Figure 1), while 2023’s unemployment was also above 2022’s threshold. The Fort Wayne MSA is comprised of Allen, Wells and Whitley counties.

Figure 1: Fort Wayne MSA and Indiana unemployment rate

Line graph showing the monthly unemployment rate for the Fort Wayne MSA and Indiana from January to August of both 2023 and 2024. There is also a table with the unemployment rates below the graph.

Source: Indiana Department of Workforce Development

Yet the number of people working in the Fort Wayne metro shrank in the past year (see Figure 2) when comparing January-to-August data from 2024 to 2023. That difference in employed workers ranged from 2,038 people in May to 5,416 in July. July’s dip in employment is likely a result of increased temporary layoffs for manufacturers’ summer shutdowns compared to 2023.

Figure 2: Fort Wayne MSA employed workers

Line graph showing monthly employment in the Fort Wayne MSA from January to August of both 2023 and 2024. 2023 numbers were consistently higher than in 2024.

Source: Indiana Department of Workforce Development

While labor market data are often regarded as a lagging indicator (telling us where the market has been and not where it is going), the holistic picture is the enduring softening of the economy with Fort Wayne’s below-average wages, higher interest rates and increased prices due to inflation. Fort Wayne’s economy may be wobblier than many want to believe.

Despite resilience to inflation in 2021 and 2022, higher prices (especially for things like groceries and rent that offer little option for substitution) are wearing on Fort Wayne consumers, causing them to cut back on discretionary spending, such as restaurants or entertainment. However, Fort Wayne isn’t cruising into recession territory unless there are additional shocks to the national economy. The 2022 white-hot job market remains in the rearview mirror. Metro residents who haven’t seen incomes keep pace with cost of living are probably feeling financially stretched heading into 2025. Those who lose their jobs at the end of this year (or into 2025) may find it difficult to regain employment at the same or higher wages, depending on their skill set.

Large-scale job losses in the Fort Wayne metro, as measured by Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) notices published by the Indiana Department of Workforce Development, were limited in 2024, with only one company with a Fort Wayne location and a handful of northeast Indiana employers closing this year. It’s important to note, however, that WARN notices only apply to select layoffs and closures, so many job losses are not captured there.

Unemployed workers often fall into three different camps: 1) workers who lost their jobs and haven’t found new employment, 2) those who were sitting on the sidelines but are now reentering the workforce, such as retirees returning to work out of desire or necessity or 3) recent high school or college graduates newly in the job market.

Population projections

This summer, Indiana University released updated county-level population projections based on Census 2020 data. These projections look at total population and population by age cohort from 2020 to 2050. The state demographer uses data about births, deaths and net migration (people moving in and out of the geography) to create the population models. They cannot factor in unknown future events, such as the closure of a large facility or the relocation or expansion of a major employer that unexpectedly causes more people to move to that location.

The new projections have Allen County growing by 54,723 residents over 30 years, marking a 14.2% increase. This growth is significantly greater than the state’s projected 5.4% growth in that same period. The projected population for Allen County is 440,805 in 2050, as compared to 386,082 in 2020.1

As has been noted in previous projections, Allen and Hamilton counties are slated to swap spots by 2030 as the state’s third- and fourth-largest counties, respectively, when measured by population. Since the projections are not an annual exercise, it is possible that Hamilton will exceed Allen in population before 2030.

The 2030 projections put Allen County at 411,056 residents, compared to 417,426 in Hamilton County, and this gap is projected to widen by 2050. While Allen County has outpaced projections in recent years, it is unlikely, with the growth of metro Indianapolis, that Allen County will regain the third-largest spot.

Allen County is on pace to grow in all age cohorts over the next 25 years, but the increase is uneven (see Table 1). For example, the college-age population is slated to increase by 33 people (+0.1%) between 2020 and 2050, while those age 65 and older will add 22,320 people (+38.2%) in that time.

Table 1: Allen County population projections by age

Year Total Preschool (0-4) School age
(5-19)
College age
(20-24)
Young adult
(25-44)
Older adult
(45-64)
Seniors
(65+)
2020 386,082 26,382 81,873 25,739 102,121 91,594 58,373
2025 399,555 26,893 81,239 26,646 109,422 89,206 66,149
2030 411,056 27,597 81,359 26,127 113,854 89,677 72,442
2035 419,877 27,863 81,868 25,535 116,785 93,120 74,706
2040 428,315 28,030 82,865 25,254 116,743 98,606 76,817
2045 434,856 27,923 83,554 25,602 115,350 104,366 78,061
2050 440,805 27,884 83,765 25,772 113,435 109,256 80,693
Numeric change from 2020 to 2050 54,723 1,502 1,892 33 11,314 17,662 22,320
Percent change from 2020 to 2050 14.2% 5.7% 2.3% 0.1% 11.1% 19.3% 38.2%

Source: Indiana Business Research Center population projections, July 2024

In contrast, the statewide Indiana school-age population (between the ages of 5 and 19) will decrease significantly between 2020 and 2050. Projections show a decrease of 71,847 people in this age cohort, a number equivalent to approximately two-and-a-half times the size of Fort Wayne Community Schools’ current enrollment (the state’s largest district by student count).

Of the 11 counties that comprise Economic Growth Region (EGR) 3, six are projected to lose population between 2020 and 2050: Grant (-11.2%), Huntington (-8.4%), Noble (-6.2%), Steuben (-6.1%), Wabash (-15.7%) and Whitley (-0.2%). Eight counties—DeKalb, Grant, Huntington, LaGrange, Noble, Steuben, Wabash and Whitley—are projected to lose school-age residents. Only Grant and Wabash counties are projected to shrink their senior populations. Steuben County is projected to gain 2,179 senior residents, which is a 30.1% increase from 2020, but that is offset by population loss in every other age group. Reflecting the strength of population centers, Allen County is the only county in EGR 3 not slated to lose population in any age categories.

Labor force projections

Switching to labor force projections, EGR 3 will add 17,943 workers to its labor force by 2050, much of that growth coming in the senior age category. In fact, the labor force of those age 65 and over will increase by 26.5% over the next 30 years (see Table 2), while the total labor force will increase by 4.5%.2

Table 2: EGR 3 labor force projections

Year Total 16-24 25-44 45-64 65+
2020 396,258 65,403 162,599 145,336 22,920
2025 403,411 65,496 171,613 140,251 26,051
2030 404,611 63,146 175,782 138,115 27,568
2035 406,095 60,911 177,397 140,802 26,985
2040 409,103 60,114 174,869 146,917 27,203
2045 411,939 59,817 171,010 153,343 27,769
2050 414,201 59,148 166,947 159,102 29,004
Numeric
change
from 2020
to 2050
17,943 -6,255 4,348 13,766 6,084
Percent
change
from 2020
to 2050
4.5% -9.6% 2.7% 9.5% 26.5%

Source: Indiana Business Research Center labor force projections, July 2024

Enthusiasm about more seniors working should be tempered by the number of actual senior workers. Census Bureau data about labor force participation3 in Indiana indicate that 26.7% of those ages 65 to 74 worked for pay in 2023, while 7% of those age 75 and older worked.

In other words, the number of available senior workers isn’t all that large. For example, Whitley County is projected to have its workers age 65 and older increase by 25.2% by 2050, but that’s only 257 additional workers. In comparison, the 16-to-24 age cohort will shrink by 11.9% (or 284 workers). By 2050, Allen County could have nearly 14,900 senior workers (+37.2%) and more than 95,500 workers ages 25 to 44 (+10.3%).

The Fort Wayne MSA is projected to increase its labor force from 232,288 in 2020 to 260,238 in 2050, an increase of 27,950 people (+12%). When removing the oldest age cohort, Fort Wayne’s projected growth is 23,397 additional workers (+10.7%).

Again demonstrating the strength of population centers, Indiana’s labor force ages 16 to 64 is projected to grow 2.9% in that same time frame. Fort Wayne’s worker growth in this traditional working-age segment constitutes almost a quarter of the state’s gain—23,397 workers compared to 94,593 statewide. Indiana is projected to have the youngest worker cohort (ages 16 to 24) shrink by 10% compared to Fort Wayne’s 3.9% reduction.

All 11 EGR 3 counties are projected to lose workers in this youngest age cohort, a total reduction of 9.6% or 6,255 workers for the EGR. This is a prime age group for seasonal or part-time jobs that are key for employers like state parks, sports facilities, retail, restaurants, hotels, seasonal attractions and arts and entertainment venues.

Regionally, the loss in the youngest age cohort and gain in the oldest (6,084 workers) are nearly equivalent. For the prime working-age population of ages 25 to 64, EGR 3 is slated to grow by 18,114 people. Consistent with the population projections, that increase is uneven. Grant (-4,111), Huntington (-2,039), Noble (-2,705), Steuben (-2,043), Wabash (-2,653) and Whitley (-493) counties are all slated to lose workers. Allen County, on the other hand, is projected to see a gain of 27,621 workers.

While population growth was a given in the 20th century, population loss, especially for younger ages, will be the norm for rural areas in the decades ahead if current patterns of birth rates and migration remain steady.

Fort Wayne and larger metro areas will be able to grow as their jobs and quality-of-life assets create a magnet for new people and retain existing residents. Northeast Indiana’s smaller, rural areas have fewer job options, especially for people with bachelor’s degrees, and fewer (or at least a smaller density of) quality-of-place features that make larger cities more attractive to mobile residents.

Steady outlook for Fort Wayne unemployment

Using more than a decade of local labor market data from January 2014 to September 2024, Purdue University Fort Wayne’s model for 2025 projects unemployment in the Fort Wayne metro to be about 4%, which is consistent with what we have seen in 2024 (see Figure 3). The slight variations reflect natural seasonal adjustments that aren’t smoothed out in local unemployment models.

Figure 3: Fort Wayne MSA unemployment rate model

Line graph showing projected monthly unemployment rates for the Fort Wayne MSA in 2025, ranging from 3.85% in September to 4.04% in April and May.

Source: Purdue University Fort Wayne

Fort Wayne’s unemployment rate was 4.3% in September 2024. The stochastic simulation unemployment forecasts are expected to be between 3.85% and 4.04% in 2025, assuming ceteris paribus, meaning all else being equal and no unexpected economic shocks akin to what we saw in the 2020 pandemic or the shocks from the Great Recession in 2008-2009. There is slight variability in the unemployment rate, but it is expected to be very close to 4%. The unemployment forecasts follow the business year, meaning that the rate is expected to dip during the holiday season followed by a slight rise, but then it dips again during the summer hiring period, reflecting seasonal variations.

After a historic election for national leadership in Washington, global market uncertainties in key commodities (like oil and rare earth metals) and the enduring effects of higher prices, the Fort Wayne labor market looks to hold its own in 2025. However, population shifts in the next five to 10 years create change that community leaders should be planning for now.

Notes

  1. Indiana Business Research Center, Population projections, July 2024, STATS Indiana, https://www.stats.indiana.edu/topic/projections.asp.
  2. Indiana Business Research Center, Labor force projections, July 2024, Hoosiers by the Numbers, https://www.hoosierdata.in.gov/labor_proj/.
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates, 2023, Table S2301, https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST1Y2023.S2301?q=labor%20force%20participation&g=040XX00US18.