Anderson forecast 2025
Assistant Professor of Finance, Falls School of Business, Anderson University
Dean, Falls School of Business, Anderson University
Madison County continues to show solid recovery from the woes of the pandemic era. The county’s unemployment rate has stayed low at 3.6%, maintaining the same gap with the state’s unemployment rate in back-to-back years.
Health care and social services and manufacturing continue to be the main industries of employment in Madison County. The county has also seen significant growth in annual average weekly wage (+6.4% year-over-year). With interest rates projected to be on the decline, the Madison County housing market has experienced average median sales price growth of 9.5% year-over-year. The 2025 business outlook for Madison County remains positive as it continues its economic growth and development.
Jobs and unemployment
A 10-year review
Reviewing the prior decade’s total employment data for Madison County, one highlight is that 2023’s annual average marks a decade high for Madison County (see Table 1). Employment has increased three years in a row since the record low experienced during the pandemic in 2020.
The average annual unemployment rate for 2023 is the second-lowest rate in a decade for Madison County, behind only last year’s rate of 3.4%. This is also the second year in a row with the smallest gap (0.3%) between Madison County and the state.
Table 1: Madison County and Indiana annual average labor force data
| Year | Madison County | Indiana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor force | Employment | Unemployment rate | Labor force | Employment | Unemployment rate |
|
| 2014 | 57,963 | 53,843 | 7.1% | 3,228,524 | 3,036,685 | 5.9% |
| 2015 | 58,211 | 54,928 | 5.6% | 3,266,392 | 3,109,791 | 4.8% |
| 2016 | 59,021 | 56,085 | 5.0% | 3,331,821 | 3,186,420 | 4.4% |
| 2017 | 58,558 | 56,248 | 3.9% | 3,333,693 | 3,217,049 | 3.5% |
| 2018 | 59,172 | 56,876 | 3.9% | 3,392,579 | 3,276,805 | 3.4% |
| 2019 | 59,276 | 57,092 | 3.7% | 3,399,870 | 3,287,462 | 3.3% |
| 2020 | 58,554 | 53,809 | 8.1% | 3,328,778 | 3,086,279 | 7.3% |
| 2021 | 58,894 | 56,223 | 4.5% | 3,332,745 | 3,201,829 | 3.9% |
| 2022 | 59,833 | 57,800 | 3.4% | 3,373,887 | 3,270,662 | 3.1% |
| 2023 | 60,874 | 58,699 | 3.6% | 3,401,387 | 3,288,017 | 3.3% |
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) available on STATS Indiana
Most recent 12 months
Looking at the most recent 12 months, the state and Madison County’s employment numbers have improved since last year (see Table 2). Employment has increased in Madison County from 59,160 in October 2023 to 60,112 in September 2024. Statewide employment also increased from 3,303,560 in October 2023 to 3,317,166 in September 2024.
While employment has increased over the year, the unemployment rate has also gone up in Madison County, from 3.3% in October 2023 to 4.3% in September 2024. The state’s unemployment rate has increased from 3.1% to 4.3% in that time. It appears that although the state and Madison County generally move in the same direction in terms of employment data, the state shows slightly higher volatility in its unemployment rate. The range of the unemployment rate for the state during the one-year period was from 2.9% to 5.0%, compared to Madison County’s range of 3.1% to 5.1%. This larger range in employment data may provide some challenges in economic policy development for the state.
Table 2: Madison County and Indiana monthly labor force data
| Month | Madison County | Indiana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor force | Employment | Unemployment rate |
Labor force | Employment | Unemployment rate |
|
| Oct. 2023 | 61,184 | 59,160 | 3.3% | 3,410,242 | 3,303,560 | 3.1% |
| Nov. 2023 | 61,482 | 59,399 | 3.4% | 3,419,254 | 3,310,541 | 3.2% |
| Dec. 2023 | 60,699 | 58,845 | 3.1% | 3,375,371 | 3,278,783 | 2.9% |
| Jan. 2024 | 60,099 | 57,549 | 4.2% | 3,329,451 | 3,201,844 | 3.8% |
| Feb. 2024 | 60,444 | 57,717 | 4.5% | 3,351,647 | 3,211,749 | 4.2% |
| Mar. 2024 | 60,617 | 58,038 | 4.3% | 3,366,330 | 3,228,754 | 4.1% |
| April 2024 | 60,859 | 58,744 | 3.5% | 3,383,143 | 3,267,361 | 3.4% |
| May 2024 | 60,909 | 58,471 | 4.0% | 3,383,788 | 3,250,844 | 3.9% |
| June 2024 | 61,701 | 58,930 | 4.5% | 3,418,535 | 3,268,177 | 4.4% |
| July 2024 | 62,765 | 59,563 | 5.1% | 3,452,319 | 3,280,291 | 5.0% |
| Aug. 2024 | 62,409 | 59,673 | 4.4% | 3,435,045 | 3,282,047 | 4.5% |
| Sep. 2024 | 62,813 | 60,112 | 4.3% | 3,464,742 | 3,317,166 | 4.3% |
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. September 2024 data are preliminary.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) available on STATS Indiana
Industry jobs and wages
Health care services and manufacturing continue to drive Madison County forward. The top five industries in Madison County based on employment by industry (as of Q1 2024) include:
- Health care and social services (17.8% of total jobs)
- Manufacturing (13.3%)
- Retail trade (11.3%)
- Accommodation and food services (10.6%)
- Educational services (9.1%)
These five industries make up 62.2% of the jobs in Madison County.
From Q1 2023 to Q1 2024, there was significant job growth in the finance and health care industries, growth of 10.1% and 6.4%, respectively (see Table 3). The agricultural industry showed strong growth of 10.7%, but the employment number did not have a significant impact on the entire county. Information experienced growth of 9.9%, but in terms of the number of jobs (311), the impact is not considered significant. The construction industry also showed strong growth of 6.1%, while professional, scientific and technical services experienced job growth of 5.6%.
During the same time period, the real estate and rental and leasing industry shows a jobs decline of -12% after last year’s strong performance (+18.9% growth). The administrative and support and waste management and removal services industry saw a decrease of 7.8% in jobs, primarily related to continued decreases in waste management and remediation services.
Average weekly wages increased from $897 per week in Q1 2023 to $954 per week in Q1 2024, representing a 6.4% increase in wages. Average weekly wages have increased in all industries, except for agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (-3.9%), information (-3.1%) and finance and insurance (-1.8%). It appears that the strong inflation rate has affected wage hikes in a nominal sense at least.
Table 3: Madison County jobs, percent of total jobs and year-over-year change in jobs and average weekly wage
| NAICS | Industry | Jobs, 2024 Q1 |
Percent of total jobs, 2024 Q1 |
Total jobs | Avg. weekly wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1-year percentage change) | |||||
| 0 | Total | 39,312 | 100.0% | 1.0% | 6.4% |
| 11 | Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting | 197 | 0.5% | 10.7% | -3.9% |
| 21 | Mining | D* | |||
| 22 | Utilities | D* | |||
| 23 | Construction | 1,627 | 4.1% | 6.1% | 10.0% |
| 31-33 | Manufacturing | 5,239 | 13.3% | 1.6% | 6.1% |
| 42 | Wholesale trade | 1,060 | 2.7% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| 44-45 | Retail trade | 4,446 | 11.3% | -3.7% | 0.3% |
| 48-49 | Transportation & warehousing | 2,179 | 5.5% | -3.3% | 12.6% |
| 51 | Information | 311 | 0.8% | 9.9% | -3.1% |
| 52 | Finance and insurance | 1,253 | 3.2% | 10.1% | -1.8% |
| 53 | Real estate and rental and leasing | 337 | 0.9% | -12.0% | 12.2% |
| 54 | Professional, scientific and technical services | 735 | 1.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% |
| 55 | Management of companies and enterprises | 241 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 15.6% |
| 56 | Admin. & support & waste mgt. & rem. services | 1,765 | 4.5% | -7.8% | 4.3% |
| 61 | Educational services | 3,585 | 9.1% | 0.8% | 6.0% |
| 62 | Health care and social services | 7,004 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 1.8% |
| 71 | Arts, entertainment and recreation | 967 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 9.0% |
| 72 | Accommodation and food services | 4,160 | 10.6% | -0.8% | 9.8% |
| 81 | Other services (except public administration) | 1,127 | 2.9% | -0.4% | 5.3% |
| 92 | Public administration | 3,015 | 7.7% | 0.6% | 10.9% |
| 99 | Unallocated | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
*D = This item is not available due to federal and state non-disclosure requirements.
Note: The employment and average weekly wage data exclude county data that are not available due to non-disclosure requirements.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data available from STATS Indiana
Residential real estate
Data from the Indiana Association of Realtors1 for September 2024 indicate that Madison County’s residential real estate market continues to thrive, with new listings up 3.3% year-over-year and closed sales up 5.5%. Statewide, Indiana has seen a 20.9% increase in new home listings year-over-year and a 12.5% increase in closed sales. However, the median home sales price has declined in the state by 1.8% to $251,267. With future rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve,2 Madison County residential real estate will likely experience low-to-moderate growth in 2025.
Madison County still has the potential to take advantage of its lower-than-average median home price ($188,458), its proximity to the Indianapolis metro and increased access to high-speed internet across the county to attract remote workers, as the remote-work trend is expected to continue into 2025 and beyond.
Outlook for 2025
The continued decade-low unemployment rate and moderate increase in wage growth are bright spots for Madison County. Given the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut and signal of expected future rate cuts in 2025, this could positively impact the economic growth of Madison County. The unemployment rate in 2025 for Madison County should be expected to remain steady if rate cuts continue. Wage growth should be expected to continue at a slower pace than 2024.
As we look toward 2025, there are several areas of strength to note for Madison County. The first is a $120 million investment by SAICA that is expected to create 56 new jobs.3 The second is a $10 million investment in Elwood sports complex, that is projected to bring up to $9 million annually in tourism revenue.4 The third is an investment to revitalize the Marsh store on Nichol Avenue with the development of a Needler’s grocery and Ace Hardware at the location, with plans to open in 2025.5 These efforts show Madison County’s continued ability to drive forward with its economic development.
Notes
- Indiana Association of Realtors residential housing data available from the Indiana Association of Realtors website at https://indianarealtors.com/consumers/housing-data/.
- Moore, Simon. “Where interest rates might go in 2025.” Forbes, October 21, 2024. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/10/15/where-might-interest-rates-go-in-2025/.
- de la Bastide, Ken. “Anderson City Council approves $5.4 million bond for cardboard manufacturer.” Herald Bulletin, February 9, 2024. https://www.heraldbulletin.com/business/anderson-city-council-approves-5-4-million-bond-for-cardboard-manufacturer/article_0c9d6f56-c756-11ee-a656-3bfc033f45a9.html.
- de la Bastide, Ken. “Elwood moving forward with sports complex.” Herald Bulletin, August 6, 2024. https://www.heraldbulletin.com/news/elwood-moving-forward-with-sports-complex/article_79cd343c-53f4-11ef-a962-037311788428.html.
- de la Bastide, Ken. “Environmental reviews delay construction on new grocery, hardware stores by six months.” Herald Bulletin, October 3, 2024. https://www.heraldbulletin.com/business/environmental-reviews-delay-construction-on-new-grocery-hardware-stores-by-six-months/article_6c8a54a4-80f3-11ef-a33c-5747d8ae03dc.html.
