92 years of economic insights for Indiana

The IBR is a publication of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU's Kelley School of Business

Three Key Indicators—Forecasts for Jobs, Income and Productivity

Deputy Director, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University

A plethora of critical information is provided on the economic conditions of the world, the nation, our state and metropolitan areas in this issue. Each article has been researched and written by economists who live and work in Indiana, providing us with unique perspectives on the economic changes and the road ahead.

We provide this particular page as an additional and alternate view of Indiana and its metropolitan areas, focusing on three specific indicators— productivity, jobs and income (see Table 1). These projected numbers may not match those of the area-specific authors because these have been gleaned from Moody’s Economic Forecasts. We encourage you to read all of the articles in addition to this snapshot to have a fuller understanding of each area, and utilize both this snapshot and the in-depth articles as an important part of your financial, economic and workforce planning for 2013.

Table 1: Projected Percent Change for Three Key Indicators, 2012 to 2013

  GDP Jobs PCPI
Indiana 2.0% 1.2% 3.6%
Anderson 0.4% -0.2% 3.0%
Bloomington 1.1% 1.2% 3.4%
Columbus 1.0% 1.9% 3.3%
Elkhart 0.8% 1.3% 3.5%
Evansville 1.2% 1.0% 3.1%
Fort Wayne 1.5% 0.9% 3.1%
Gary 1.3% 0.4% 3.7%
Indianapolis 2.0% 0.9% 3.0%
Kokomo 0.6% 1.0% 3.5%
Lafayette 1.1% 2.0% 3.3%
Michigan City 0.7% 0.1% 3.2%
Muncie 0.6% 1.2% 4.2%
South Bend 0.8% 0.4% 2.8%
Terre Haute 0.6% 0.1% 3.3%

Source: IBRC, using subscription data from Economy.com

So, what can we gather from just three indicators? On per capita personal income, an indicator of relative wealth in an area, Indiana and its metros are forecast to gain anywhere from 2.8 percent in South Bend to 4.2 percent in Muncie (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: PCPI Growth Forecast for 2013

Figure 1: PCPI Growth Forecast for 2013

Source: IBRC, using subscription data from Economy.com

The same can’t be said in terms of productivity gains, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP)figures seen in Figure 2. The state and its largest metro area, Indianapolis, show forecasted gains of 2 percent in GDP, while half of the metro areas will see increases of less than 1 percent.

Figure 2: GDP Growth Forecast for 2013

Figure 2: GDP Growth Forecast for 2013

Source: IBRC, using subscription data from Economy.com

Jobs data show increases between 1 and 2 percent in regions that have significant manufacturing investments: the state, Bloomington, Columbus, Elkhart, Kokomo and Lafayette (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Job Growth Forecast for 2013

Figure 3: Job Growth Forecast for 2013

Source: IBRC, using subscription data from Economy.com

Overall, the Moody’s Economy.com forecasts show mixed results across our metropolitan landscape, but are primarily positive across all three measures. From what you will read by our authors, there may be a chorus of “slow” or “more of the same” as our economies continue to grow by inches.