Outlook Summary for 2003
The Big Picture
By the Kelley School of Business
Bill Witte on the National Forecast:
Gross Domestic Product is to approach 4 percent next year. This growth
should be more broadly based than during the past two years, with significant
help from business investment in new plant and equipment, and probably also
from some inventory rebuilding. The economy could generate close to two million
new jobs in 2004.
John Boquist and Bill Sartoris forecast the Financial Picture:
We expect to see a slight rise in interest rates during 2004. The
stock market will continue to make gains, although at a less spectacular rate
than in 2003.
Jeff Fisher on Housing:
Housing starts will continue near the same level of about 1.7 million
to 1.8 million starts (single and multi-family). While a rise in interest rates
will dampen housing starts, the continued economic recovery should offset this.
Jerry Conover and Jim Smith on Indiana:
We forecast an increase of only about 1 percent, or roughly 28,000 jobs. The
unemployment rate should decline slightly, approaching 4.6 percent by the end
of 2004.
Andreas Hauskrecht’s Global Forecast:
World economic growth will be around 4.1 percent, with an economic upswing
for essentially all world regions, except Japan.
Indiana Metro Areas
By Faculty from Academia Statewide
Barry Ritchey on Anderson:
Income in the county continues to lag behind income for the state, which lags
behind income growth for the country. That performance is a continuing trend
for this community.
Morton Marcus on Bloomington:
The fundamentals of the Bloomington economy are unchanged and participation
in the generally favorable economic scenario is likely.
Jim Smith on Columbus:
Our overall employment forecast is for a very slow rise in employment during
2004, adding perhaps 300 jobs in the county, with the unemployment rate expected
to remain above 3 percent.
Gale Blalock on Evansville:
Our unemployment rate is less than the state’s and the nation’s.
As the national economy continues to recover, the local economy is also likely
to continue its recovery.
Tom Guthrie on Fort Wayne:
For 2004, the forecast is an increase between 2,500 and 5,000 jobs. Over the
longer run, the capacity of the area to grow employment is likely about half
that of the nation.
Don Coffin on Gary:
The local economy will continue its pattern of slower growth in output and
employment than the national and state economies for yet another year. While
total local output may be expected to rise by about 2.6 percent, this is likely
to translate into a small employment decline.
Morton Marcus on Indianapolis:
Indianapolis stands to gain from major ongoing construction at the airport
and an attractive retail environment, which draws shoppers from a wide radius.
Even if the Indianapolis area were to add jobs at a 1 percent rate, the metro
area would see a growth of 7,700 jobs.
Kathy Parkison on Kokomo:
Although the state and local loss of manufacturing jobs is still troubling,
the national and state economies are poised to grow. This should also be true
of the local economy.
Pat Barkey on Muncie:
An acceleration in the national economy will help the Muncie economy, but our
experience of the last ten years tells us that it will take more than that
for us to prosper.
Dagney Faulk on New Albany:
The coming year should generate an additional 900 jobs in the nonagricultural
sector of southern Indiana, and unemployment rates should continue to decrease
slightly.
Ash Veramallay on Richmond:
Rising employment in some industries (such as health care, education, and food)
will offset job losses in the manufacturing sector, although certainly won’t
offset loss in wages.
Paul Joray and Paul Kochanowski on South Bend and Elkhart:
We should see reasonable growth in employment and a reduction in the unemployment
rates to the 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent range during the year, with lower rates
near the end of 2004.
Also in this Issue…
- Outlook for 2004
- The U.S. Economy
- The International Economy
- Financial Forecast
- Corporate Governance and Reporting
- Housing
- Indiana
- Anderson
- Bloomington
- Columbus
- Evansville
- Fort Wayne
- Gary
- Indianapolis
- Kokomo
- Lafayette
- Muncie
- New Albany
- Richmond
- South Bend/Mishawaka and Elkhart/Goshen
- Terre Haute
- Outlook Summary for 2004