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Indiana University Bloomington

Center for Econometric Model Research

Indiana Sub-State Forecast Summary

February 2014

 

Our sub-state model uses county level data combined into regional aggregates, with selected variables from our Indiana state model as exogenous variables.  Here we present a regional breakdown based on the state’s larger metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

The basic data for our sub-state forecast come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Economic Information System (REIS). REIS data are annual, back to 1969. The most recent data are for 2011 and are on a NAICS basis. However, data prior to 2001 have not been transformed to the new system, and consequently data for 1969-2000 are still on the SIC basis.  In addition to the REIS data, which cover employment and income by sector, our models include population data.  For the latter we use county-level estimates from the Census Bureau through 2010, and slightly adjusted projections from the Indiana Business Research Center thereafter.

For 2012-2016 all MSAs except Anderson show employment growth. Employment growth is fastest in the Elkhart-Goshen, Indianapolis, Louisville, Evansville, and Lafayette MSAs.  Each of these MSAs is expected to experience greater employment growth above 2.0 percent compared to the state average of 1.6 percent.

Income growth is forecasted in all regions with the top MSAs being Elkhart-Goshen, Columbus, Indianapolis, Evansville, South Bend, Fort Wayne,and Lafayette.  Each of these MSAs is expected to experience greater income growth exceeding 4.5 percent compared to the state average of 3.8 percent.